#23) THE NARRATIVE INDEX 1: A New Communications Tool

This is the first of three posts about what I believe to be a new and valuable communications tool. I have been trying since last September to interest the major political blogs in The Narrative Index (or N.I.) but they seem to be skeptical of both its newness and simplicity. Let’s see what you think. The data speak for themselves.

DO THE MATH: Guess where these posts are going to lead.

 

AN INDEX OF NARRATIVE STRENGTH

Some texts grab your attention and don’t let you go. Other texts put you to sleep. Wouldn’t it be nice if there were a single number that reflected this property?

Just over four years ago when I came across the extremely simple concept of “The Rule of Replacing” (as espoused by the co-creators of the animated series “South Park”) I found myself saying “surely it can’t be that simple.” Since then I’ve put that skepticism to the test though countless talks, a TEDMED presentation, a letter in Science, a webinar, and finally an entire book about it last fall titled, “Houston, We Have A Narrative.”

My main activity this year is fulfilling the vision of the book — propagating the ABT Framework by creating Story Circles Narrative Fitness Training which you can read about on our website. The next event will involve 40 biologists from USDA, USFWS and USGS next week in Ft. Collins, Colorado.

As a result of all this effort, I’m now certain that narrative structure, at it’s core, is indeed as simple as ABT. So what’s next?

Last summer I had a new revelation about the ABT template. It was the thought that if you were to use the Rule of Replacing, all else equal, when you finished with a given text you would have altered the ratio of the number of “buts” to “ands.” This ratio becomes a single number reflective of the strength of the narrative content of the material. Here’s how it works.

 

THE “BUT” WORD

“But” is the word of contradiction in the ABT. It is the heart and soul of narrative. There are lots of other words of contradiction (however, despite, yet), BUT … if you were to quantify it, you would easily see that BUT is the most common.

In fact there is a website that presents the 5,000 most common words in The Corpus of Contemporary English. Here’s how a few interesting words score on that list (how frequently they are used in the English language):

and – 3
but – 23
or – 32
while – 153
yet – 276
however – 285
despite – 772
instead – 997

“But” is the only connector word of contradiction in the top 100, aside from “or” which doesn’t have any narrative strength.

More importantly, all you have to do is look at the front page of a newspaper to see that most stories (if they are written well) begin with a few facts then a “but” (I’m looking at the front page of the NY Times for Feb. 13, 2016 and I see three of the four stories above the fold have this structure — two using “but,” one using “instead,” — and now I’m looking at Sunday Feb. 21 and see 3 of the 5 stories on the front page open with the ABT structure — again two “buts” and an “instead”).

“But” is central to having good narrative strength. At the other end of the spectrum (specifically “The Narrative Spectrum” as I labeled it in my book) is the template of, “And, And, And” text or AAA. This is text that is almost devoid of narrative content — just a string of comments tied together by the word of agreement, “and.”

The bottom line is that the more times you are saying “but” relative to “and” the more narrative strength there is to the content you are presenting. To quantify this ratio I have created this single calculation:

      THE NARRATIVE INDEX = Buts/Ands X 100

I’ve had lengthy discussions with colleagues — especially my old buddy Bill Dennison at University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science, who will be posting his own essay tomorrow on applying the Narrative Index to the co-discoverers of the theory of evolution by means of natural selection, Charles Darwin versus Alfred Russell Wallace. Out of those discussions I’ve opted for simplicity by just keeping it as the ratio of buts to ands, multiplied by 100 to make it a whole number.

To calculate it for a given text, all you do is copy the material into a word processor, search for “and” and “but,” record their abundances, then divide.

Here, let’s do it for the story on Scalia on the front page of the Feb 15, 2016 NY Times.

But – 10
And – 27
Narrative Index (But/And) X 100 = 37

That’s actually a pretty high value, but to be expected for the front page of the NY Times — no room for ambling, unfocused AAA presentations there.

So that’s how simple it is to calculate. Try it for yourself on a body of text. In the next post I’ll set to work showing you the patterns that emerge for everyone from scientists to politicians.

#22) Hillary is Too Much of a Scientist

I want to support Hillary but she simply does not have the communication style that is needed for today’s world. Yesterday on Meet the Press, and last week on Hardball and Bill Maher they focused on her tendency to give nuanced answers. It just doesn’t work in a world of too much noise.

THE PRICE OF AND, AND, AND.   Hillary’s approach to communication is not suited for today.

 

WHAT IS NUANCE FOR, WHEN NO ONE LISTENS ANY MORE?

Trump has punched his way to the top through the use of one key element: simplicity. Bernie Sanders has followed in his footsteps. But Hillary still hasn’t quite figured it out.
 
Trump had it nailed from the outset with his simple moronic narrative slogan “Make America Great Again.”  Bernie has had an equally simple message all along which he boiled down to one line last week.  Here is Chuck Todd quoting his line yesterday on Meet The Press.
 
CHUCK TODD:  Senator Sanders called the entire business model of Wall Street a fraud …
 
HILLARY CLINTON:  I think it’s kind of an extreme statement that once you take a hard look at it is hard to understand.  When we talk about Wall Street are we talking about every bank or are we talking about a particular part of New York? That’s never really clarified. What I believe is that there are good actors and bad actors, actors in every part of our economy.
 

THE SAD TRUTH OF TODAY

That exchange is a sad portrait of what I’m afraid the future holds for Hillary. She just doesn’t get it when it comes to concision. That’s why she has had no slogan to her campaign. I wish today’s world was as decent and intelligent and thoughtful and listening as the world for which she is designed. But it’s not.
 
Look at what Sanders said — that Wall Street is built on fraud. Is that not the broad sentiment of today? Is that not the core message of the movie “The Big Short” that is about to clean up at the Oscars?
 
Yes, I know the situation is more nuanced than that, but when it comes to mass communication nuance is death, unless you’re going to put together an entire detailed communications campaign that is structured around conveying nuance. Which is not impossible, but it takes more effort than just throwing all the details out using the “and and and” (AAA) form.
 
Hillary is going to get whomped tomorrow night in New Hampshire. She essentially got whomped last week in Iowa despite “winning.” Regardless of the actual politics of what she stands for I’m afraid her approach to communication is more suited to the 1970’s than today.
 

THE SINGULARITY OF WOMEN POWER

A final sad comment on Hillary. Chuck Todd confronted her about Madeline Albright’s semi-humorous statement last week that there is a special place in hell for women who don’t support women candidates. Hillary should have embraced that statement firmly saying that’s right, it’s time for a woman in the presidency. But instead she backpedaled, dismissed it to some extent as “that’s just Madeline” and passed up yet another opportunity for simplicity in her messaging. It is time for a woman president, she ought to be the one, and she should just take a chance and go with the gender element. But she’s not.  I’m guessing it’s because of some polling data she’s following.

#21) “Our yearning for certainty”: The Narrative Dynamic of True Crime TV

Kathryn Schultz in The New Yorker has a great article about the driving force of today’s true crime tv/radio obsession.  At the core of the trend is the same desire for “positive patterns” I discussed at length in my book.  She sums it up as “our yearning for certainty.”  Same same.  It’s inevitable and it drives a lot of tragic misdeeds, including how some TV shows are made.

UNSAVORY AVERY.  Who knows if he’s innocent, but he’s clearly no saint.

 

THE COURT OF LAST RESORT

If you’re into the latest true crime TV series, “Making a Murderer,” you should read the excellent article in The New Yorker yesterday by Kathryn Schultz.  I binge watched 8 of the 10 episodes over the holidays, which was enough to get me to the point of feeling the story is interesting, however … there was a definite stench of confirmation bias in how it was put together.
 
That bias led to a form of mass hysteria as over 400,000 people stampeded (via the internet) to the White House signing a misguided petition begging Mr. Obama to fix everything using his magic powers.  As Schultz points out, it wasn’t even a federal case so there’s zippo the President could do even if he wanted to.
 
Schultz nails the bottom line with a single phrase — “our yearning for certainty.”  It is a phrase that is so deep.  It underpins everything from false positives in science to all of religion.  It is a basic human need that can overpower even the greatest physical evidence.  And it ultimately overpowered the filmmakers.
 
Her article is tremendous in so many ways — not the least of which is near the end as she points out the veritable lack of moral conscience from the makers of both “Making a Murderer” and NPR’s hit “Serial” with this great passage:
 
But neither “Serial” (which is otherwise notable for its thoroughness) nor “Making a Murderer” ever addresses the question of what rights and considerations should be extended to victims of violent crime, and under what circumstances those might justifiably be suspended.  Instead, both creators and viewers tacitly dismiss the pain caused by such shows as collateral damage, unfortunate but unavoidable. Here, too, the end is taken to justify the means; someone else’s anguish comes to seem like a trifling price to pay for the greater cause a documentary claims to serve.

#20) Hillary Does Not Have A Narrative

She doesn’t. A shopping list of “things to do” is not a narrative. Trump has a narrative. It may sound stupid to many, but he has one and it’s on his hat. Yes, effective mass communication is that simple. Sorry.

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IT’S IMPORTANT TO KNOW WHAT A NARRATIVE IS, AND TO KNOW WHO DOESN’T HAVE ONE.

 

AND, AND, AND …

Last night on MSNBC’s Hardball with Chris Matthews he had on Senator Tammy Baldwin (D, Wisconsin) who is a big supporter of Hillary Clinton.  In response to the other guests on the show saying that Hillary is lacking a clear message/narrative, she said this about the thoughts of Hillary’s followers:
 
“… they do think she has a very clear message … she’s about jobs and equal pay and all the renewable energy jobs that we have the potential to create, she’s about healthcare and she’s about healing some of the deep divides we have in our nation.”
 
That is NOT a narrative.  That is a shopping list.  That is an “And, And, And” statement.
 
 

TRUMP HAS A NARRATIVE

You want to know what “having a narrative is about” just look at Donald Trump’s hat.  Yes, I know it seems moronic, but the fact is he has a clear ABT structure to his campaign which is basically, “America used to be a great AND mighty nation, BUT we’ve slipped in the world, THEREFORE it’s time to MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN.”
 
That is what is called having a singular narrative — a singular voice that the masses can rally around.  Obama had HOPE.  Hillary has … a bunch of stuff.
 
It’s bad enough that Hillary has not been able to formulate any sort of singular theme, but it’s even worse that major supporters like this Senator don’t even see the mistake she is making.  I wanted to support Hillary initially but now I’ve shifted to Bernie who at least has a clear theme of EAT THE RICH!
 
Go Bernie!

#19) It’s the Problems, Dummy

Trump says the country is falling apart, but White House Chief of Staff Dennis McDonough says he’s baffled why Trump and the other Republican Presidential candidates would say this.  Really?  Don’t you think they kind of need some problems to match their solutions if they want to have “a narrative”?  As I continue to say, Donald Trump embodies every principle of narrative presented in my new book.  He is the living demonstration of the power of narrative — NOT storytelling — is everyone aware of the difference?

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“I DON’T REALLY GET IT.”  Well, that’s the truth, Mr. McDonough.  At least he’s honest about it.  But what’s not to get about Trump?

 

WHY THE LEFT IS BAFFLED BY TRUMP

It’s about narrative.  Trump has a mastery of it, people on the left don’t.  It’s kind of that simple.  His speech last Thursday in Vermont was a tour de force of his narrative skills.  Not storytelling.  He’s a lousy, choppy storyteller.  He’s no Ronald Reagan.  But what he knows is narrative.
 
Narrative is about “problem-solution.”  It is at the core of storytelling, but it’s only one part of a story.
 
Yesterday on “Meet the Press” White House Chief of Staff Denis McDonough sat there sounding totally confused as Chuck Todd asked him about Trump’s penchant for saying the nation is on fire and about to explode.
 
Here’s what he said:  “I don’t really get it.  What I see is an America that’s surging.”  He lists all the FACTS of how vibrant and successful our society is at the moment (as if Trump cares).  He continues by saying, “I do not understand why the Republicans — each of them — continue to run down America.”
 
Well, I understand why.  It’s kind of simple.  Without problems, you can’t have solutions.  And without problems and solutions, you have no narrative.
 
Trump gets this better than all the rest — so much that he has his narrative on his hat, “Make America Great Again.”  There’s the statement of the problem in his view — that America has slipped.  He gets this stuff.  He’s spinning absolute circles around his opponents and the left is utterly lost.
 
There are dark days ahead.  That’s my fear-mongering statement of the problem.

#18) Trump Language Analysis: Analysts Bringing AAA’s to an ABT Fight

Donald Trump knows narrative. That’s the simple bottom line, with the emphasis on simple. At the core of effective narrative is the ability to find the simple singular theme — which is not what happens when people on the left take to analyzing Trump’s use of language. They end up with shopping lists of all the things Trump does, then usually package that with a tone of derision and dismissal. Trump has one huge advantage over the left that boils down to one word that he truly grasps — “simplicity.”

 

AND, AND, AND … here’s a guy presenting a shopping list of all the things Trump does. This doesn’t help things. His analysis is on the right track, but is so complicated as to be useless — not deserving of the smug voice he delivers it with — as if he’s solved the riddle of Trump.

 

TRUMP IS LOOPY

Question: What’s the one asset Donald Trump has above all the other candidates, and really, pretty much all of today’s politicians? Answer: He has deep narrative intuition. He understands narrative and he wields it like a bat.

He’s not a great storyteller. Narrative and storytelling are not the same. Ronald Reagan was a great storyteller. Trump doesn’t tell great stories. But what he has is a powerful grasp of narrative, meaning the basic problem-solution dynamic.

He speaks in tight loops of problem-solution. And he gets to the solutions immediately and simply. No beating around the bush. No answers of “It’s complicated.” Just simple answers, producing tight, closed narrative loops, which people really like. Even if the solutions are unrealistic and dishonest.

You won’t find the same pattern in any of the other candidates. Ted Cruz has almost none of this intuition. Jeb Bush has even less.

There has never been a politician like Trump. He is custom made for today’s media-driven world — which is why Fox and MSNBC swoon over him.

The Democrats had better stop ridiculing him, stop making predictions that he could never win, and start understanding this thing called narrative that he has a mastery of. I published a book on it last fall. He embodies everything that I wrote about. He’s not someone to be laughed at.